Developers Invest Where MAUs and Retention Are Higher

The winner-take-all dynamics of AI platform ecosystems are driven by user metrics, not just technology. When developers choose where to build, they follow the numbers.

ChatGPT's emerging dominance as a distribution platform isn't just about having better AI technology - it's about having dramatically better user engagement metrics. As Brian Balfour explains, when developers are deciding where to invest their limited resources, they look at two critical factors: the size of the user base and the quality of engagement.

"ChatGPT at this point has like at least a 10x difference on MAUs [Monthly Active Users]," Balfour notes. "If you're a developer right and you're comparing those two platforms and you're looking at it and you're like, 'Well, ChatGPT has 10x the number of users and better retention engagement,' it's like what's the logical choice of which one you're going to prioritize your scarce resources on?"

This creates a powerful flywheel effect. More users and better engagement attract more developers, which creates more use cases and features, which attracts even more users. This is why Balfour believes ChatGPT is positioned to become the next major distribution platform, similar to how Facebook, Google, and the App Store became dominant channels in previous cycles.

The key insight for companies is that this isn't just about technology superiority - it's about following user behavior patterns. Even if you personally prefer a different AI platform, the smart strategic move is to build where the users are and where they're most engaged. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle that makes it increasingly difficult for competitors to catch up, even if they have superior technology in some aspects.

For startups especially, with limited resources, this means making a focused bet on the platform showing the strongest user metrics rather than trying to spread resources across multiple platforms. The window of opportunity is short, and the companies that recognize and capitalize on the emerging distribution channel first will gain significant advantages.