ChatGPT's Coming Third-Party Platform

ChatGPT's Emerging Distribution Platform: The Next Major Growth Channel

ChatGPT is poised to become the next major distribution platform for products and services, creating a significant growth opportunity for companies that move quickly to integrate with it. This represents the first major new distribution channel to emerge in years, following in the footsteps of platforms like Facebook, Google, and the App Store.

Brian Balfour identifies that we're at an inflection point where all the conditions for a new distribution platform are emerging. ChatGPT has identified its moat (context and memory), and is showing signs of preparing to launch a third-party platform that will follow the same four-step cycle seen with previous platforms:

Step Zero (Current State): The market conditions are met - there's consensus about AI chat platforms being a huge category, with 5-7 major players battling for dominance (OpenAI, Claude, Gemini, etc.).
Step One: A player identifies their moat and presses their advantage. For ChatGPT, the moat is context and memory - the more you use it, the more it stores memory about you, creating personalized context that produces better outputs.
Step Two: The platform opens up to third-party developers, offering a value exchange. ChatGPT will likely offer developers access to context, memory, and distribution in exchange for integrations that expand use cases.
Step Three: Eventually, the platform closes down for control and monetization, either by shutting down third-party access, developing their own first-party applications, or artificially depressing organic distribution to push toward paid mechanisms.

The key insight is that there's a golden period during Step Two when the platform is actively seeking third-party integrations and offering generous distribution. This creates a massive growth opportunity for companies that move quickly.

Signs that ChatGPT is preparing to launch this platform include:

Job postings for roles related to an "agent platform"
Formation of preferred partnerships with larger companies (like HubSpot)
Introduction of agent mode and other features that prepare users for this ecosystem

For startups, the advice is clear: you must play this game, as there's no opting out. If you don't integrate with these new platforms, your competitors will, and customer expectations will shift. Unlike established companies that can afford to place multiple bets, startups need to choose one platform and go all-in with focused resources.

The cycles of these platforms are getting shorter and shorter, so the window of opportunity may be brief - likely within the next six months. Companies should be prepared to turn their strategy on a dime and capitalize extremely quickly when these platforms emerge.

This represents a rare opportunity to disrupt incumbents, similar to how companies like Zynga grew on Facebook to become massive businesses. The distribution advantage gained by early movers on new platforms can create escape velocity before incumbents have time to respond.

How to Evaluate Which Platform to Bet On

When deciding which platform to focus on, consider:

Retention and depth of engagement rather than just MAU numbers
User quality and ability to monetize those users
The value exchange being offered to developers
Overall scale and momentum

Most importantly, while planning your entry strategy, immediately begin thinking about your exit strategy for when the platform eventually closes down. This means considering how you'll own important parts of the user experience, accumulate specialized data that the platforms don't have, or create micro-network effects that provide lasting value beyond the platform.