Bezos' 70% Rule for Accepting Uncertainty

Bezos's 70% Rule for Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

When making decisions with incomplete information, many people delay action until they feel more certain. This creates decision paralysis and missed opportunities. Jeff Bezos counters this tendency with his 70% rule.

The 70% Rule Explained

• When you have 70% of the information needed to make a decision, that's the time to act
• Waiting for 90% or 100% certainty means you're likely moving too slowly
• The rule acknowledges that uncertainty is inherent in most important decisions
• It's designed to "roll people back" from seeking perfect information before acting

Why This Works

• Most decisions are reversible - you can course-correct if needed
• The cost of delay often exceeds the cost of an imperfect decision
• Competitive advantage comes from moving faster than others
• New information emerges through action that wouldn't be available through further analysis

Application Principles

• Distinguish between reversible "two-way door" decisions (apply the 70% rule) vs. irreversible "one-way door" decisions (require more certainty)
• Focus on what you know rather than what you don't know
• Accept that luck and hidden information will influence outcomes
• Recognize that starting under uncertainty is normal and necessary
• Use the rule to combat analysis paralysis in yourself and your team

Implementation Tactics

• When feeling stuck, ask "Do I have roughly 70% of the information I need?"
• Create clear decision criteria for what constitutes "enough information"
• Set time limits on information gathering phases
• Build in checkpoints to evaluate and potentially reverse decisions
• Celebrate decisions made with appropriate speed, not just perfect outcomes

The 70% rule acknowledges that business decisions involve uncertainty by design, and waiting for perfect information is often more costly than making a reasonably informed decision and adjusting as needed.