Success Is Chain of Small Decisions

Ben Horowitz's insight about success and failure reveals that both result from chains of small decisions rather than single dramatic moments. This perspective offers a powerful mental model for decision-making under pressure.

The Chain of Decisions Model

• Success and failure both result from sequences of small decisions that compound over time
• No single decision is catastrophic by itself, but collectively they create momentum in a direction
• The pilot example showed that plane crashes result from "17 bad decisions in a row" - none fatal alone, but deadly in combination

Breaking the Sunk Cost Trap

• The psychological ability to break sunk cost thinking is crucial for leadership
• When facing a bad trajectory, the ability to reset and make a new decision is essential
• One small good decision leads to the next small good decision, eventually creating success
• This requires psychological strength to abandon previous investments when they're leading nowhere

Making Decisions in the Abyss

• "The psychological muscle you have to build to be a great leader is to be able to click in the abyss and go 'okay that way is slightly better, we're gonna go that way'"
• The worst thing a leader can do is hesitate on the next decision
• Hesitation happens when both options look terrible, but one is usually slightly better
• Example: Going public with only $2M in revenue was a bad idea, but bankruptcy was worse

Running Toward Fear

• Leaders must run toward pain and darkness rather than avoiding difficult decisions
• The value of leadership comes when you make decisions most people don't like
• If everyone agrees with your decision, you didn't add value - they would have done it without you
• Recognizing what you see and acting on it quickly is like a football player trusting their eyes

Building Decision Confidence

• CEOs often fail when they lose confidence after making expensive mistakes
• Loss of confidence leads to hesitation, which creates a leadership vacuum
• When leaders hesitate, senior people jump into the void, creating political dysfunction
• "The median on the CEO test is like 18, not 90" - you must be comfortable getting D-minuses

This model helps explain why seemingly small choices compound into either success or failure, and why the psychological ability to make the next right decision—even when all options seem bad—is the essence of effective leadership.