Systems Thinking in Hiring Pipeline Analysis

Systems thinking in hiring pipelines reveals bottlenecks by tracking conversion rates between stages.

When analyzing hiring challenges, Will Larson recommends using systems thinking to model your pipeline as a series of stocks and flows:

• Start by identifying your key "stocks" (accumulation points) in the hiring process:

  • Potential candidates (essentially infinite)
  • Active candidates in your pipeline
  • Candidates at each interview stage
  • Candidates receiving offers
  • Candidates accepting offers

• Map the "flows" (conversion rates) between these stocks:

  • Sourcing rate: How many potential candidates become active candidates
  • Screen-to-interview conversion: How many move from initial screening to deeper interviews
  • Interview-to-offer conversion: How many interviewed candidates receive offers
  • Offer acceptance rate: How many offers turn into hires

• Use this model to diagnose specific pipeline problems:

  • If many candidates reach final stages but few offers are extended → hiring managers lack conviction
  • If many offers are extended but few are accepted → closing strategy or compensation issues
  • If few candidates enter the pipeline → sourcing or employer brand problems

• Validate your model with real data:

  • Pull historical metrics from your applicant tracking system
  • Compare actual conversion rates against your expectations
  • Identify the largest drop-offs to prioritize improvements

• Avoid making changes based on assumptions:

  • "We've all worked in companies where you roll out big changes with no data behind them"
  • The real problem might not be what you initially suspect

This approach transforms abstract hiring challenges into concrete, measurable flows that can be systematically improved rather than making changes based on feelings or anecdotes.